This feature is coming very soon

Jonathan Mitchell
Mike McGinnis
Daniel Marino
Charlie Nehl
Aaron Boynton
John Cloutman
Mike Hall
Kevin Reich

Jonathan Mitchell's Blog
Keith Law's Blog
Supreme Sports Justice
MLB Trade Rumors
Beyond the Boxscore
Paul DePodesta's Blog
College Baseball Blog
ESPN.com Baseball
SI.com Baseball
Minor League Ball
Prospect Insider
Fangraphs
RotoWorld
Mike McGinnis Show Sunday Nights 9pm
Baseball Reference

Facebook Page
Twitter Updates
RSS

Career Stats Speak Volumes Over April Stats
By supremesportsjustice.com on April 23, 2008

Before getting too excited about the early success of some of the starters on your fantasy pitching staff, or getting down on some starters for starting out slowly, be sure to check out their lifetime stats and/or trends. Some pitchers who have pitched well thus far this season, may just be early season wonders. Don’t hesitate to deal one of those pitchers if their lifetime stats suggest it won’t last. Rarely will an average pitcher suddenly turn it around and become an ace. It happens on occasion, but it is rare.

Let’s look at some lifetime trends/stats and determine whether or not some of these pitchers are worth keeping or dealing.

Jake Westbrook - I’ve been down on him since day one. So far this season, he’s made me look bad, but look at his career numbers. His career ERA is 4.30. In 8 years, he’s had an ERA under 4.00 just once. The most strikeouts he had in a single season was 119. Perhaps most telling, opposing hitters are batting .278 against him for his career. His overall career record with good Cleveland teams behind him: 63-63.
Cliff Lee’s numbers are not much better. He has a career ERA of 4.51, and has had just one season with an ERA under 4.00. He averages about 29 HR surrendered each year.
Recommendation: Trade both

AJ Burnett’s best season was when he went 12-9. He has never topped the 12 win mark for his career. His winning percentage is a mere 3 games over .500, and he’s an injury risk every year. Perhaps he’d be worth the risk if he pitched in the NL Central, but his career numbers coupled with pitching in the AL East makes him too much of a risk.
Recommendation: Trade him

Mark Buehrle has looked awful this season, but before giving up too soon on him, look at his career numbers: He has given up more hits than IP for his career, including the last five seasons. That is a bit startling, but he’s had just one season under .500 in his career, and he has won at least 16 games in four seasons. He won’t get many strikeouts, but he knows how to win based on his career stats.
Recommendation: Keep him

Jeremy Bonderman - I was just about as high on him as anyone to have a great year pitching for the loaded Tigers. A further look at his career stats make me think twice and put up a caution sign with him. He is a career sub .500 pitcher. His career ERA is 4.77, which is far from being good. He had one dominating season, but people tend to forget that in his rookie season, he went 6-19. And perhaps one last thought for good measure, his lowest ERA in any season was 4.08. That number would be higher if not for pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark. After all is said and done, he may just be a .500 pitcher after all.
Recommendation: Trade him

Livan Hernandez - Before getting excited about his early season success, look at his numbers: His career ERA is 4.23 and his WHIP is an alarming 1.42. The opposition is batting .278 against him for his career. In 12 years, he finished over .500 just 5 times. His best strikeout total in the last 3 years was 90 strikeouts. With opposing batters putting the ball in play with regularity, that is not good for Hernandez. He has allowed more hits than IP in the last 4 years. If you own him, get rid of him fast…especially being in a tougher league.
Recommendation: Trade him

Jon Garland is another pitcher I was hgh on, but his career numbers suggest mediocrity. His career 4.42 ERA is far from impressive. His best strikeout season in 8 years: 115 K’s. Perhaps most concerning is opponents batting .271 against him for his career. He’s had an ERA under 4.00 once in the last 6 years. Being surrounded by a good team will enhance his win total, but he won’t help you anywhere else.
Recommendation: Trade him

Ervin Santana is still young and will mature, and hopefully get better. However, until he does improve, his career ERA is 4.78, and the best ERA he had in a single season was 4.28 He’s also had just one complete game in 3 years. He’s still growing as a pitcher, but if you’re relying on him to help lead your pitching staff, look elsewhere.
Recommendation: Hold on to him, but if your league allows minor leaguers, stash him.

Rich Harden has been beset by injuries, (being healthy 1 of 5 seasons), but when healthy, he is dominant! That often gets lost pitching out west. He has a 3.54 career ERA and a career .226 BA against. If you can put up with frequent injuries, he’s a four category pitcher.
Recommendation: Keep him and/or trade for him.

Carlos Silva - There is no reason to keep him on your roster…period. I’m not sure what Seattle was looking at when they went after him and offered him a contract. His career era stands at 4.27. His career BA against is an atrocious .298. He makes average hitters better than they actually are. The most strikeouts he had in a season was a mere 89. And in 6 seasons, he’s never had more IP than hits allowed.
Recommendation: Dump him fast.

Jarrod Washburn seems to have lost his way as well. His last year over .500 was 2004 and his best strikeout season in 10 years was 139 K’s. He should pick up victories, but he doesn’t help much in other categories.
Recommendation: Trade him or keep him on your minor league squad for emergency.

Jason Jennings - Where do we start here? He has a career ERA of 4.96. He has a .284 career BA against and a 1.55 career WHIP. For his career, he is 8 games under .500. In 7 seasons, he once had less hits than IP. He’s had just one season over .500, and 4 seasons with ERA over 5.00. Pitching in hitters parks his entire career hasn’t helped.
Recommendation: Trade him.

Kevin Millwood - I’ve never liked him much, however, despite pitching in Texas, for his career, he is 31 games over .500 and has a career ERA of 3.95. And of his 1 seasons, he has had just 3 seasons under .500. He’s an under rated talent who often flies under the radar.
Recommendation: Hold and/or trade for him.

Tim Hudson -Should you be worried if you own him? Quick answer: Nope. He has a career ERA 3.51, and just twice in 11 years he’s had an ERA over 4.00. Perhaps more importantly, he has never had season under .500.
Recommendation: Hold and/or trade for him.

Ted Lilly - Everyone is waiting for him to rebound and find his form, but don’t count on it. Before last season, he was a .500 pitcher. He’s allowed 129 HR in last 5 seasons. He has a career ERA of 4.53, and only once in last 7 seasons, he’s had an ERA under 4.00 and just twice in his 10 year career.
Recommendation: Trade him.

Bronson Arroyo was a pick-to-click this season, however…. His career ERA is 4.24, and his career BA against is .265. As a starter, only once in 4 seasons has he had an ERA under 4.00. And for his career, he is 5 games under .500. You’ve been warned.
Recommendation: Trade him.

Matt Morris - His last season with an ERA under 4.00 was in 2003. His last season to throw more innings than hits allowed was 1998. That’s about ten years for those of you who are bad with math. His career BA against is .268 and over .300 past two seasons.
Recommendation: Release him.

Greg Maddux will be going to the Hall of Fame, but in recent years, he’s done nothing to support that. His last season with less hits allowed than IP was 2002. His last season with an ERA under 4.00 was back in 2003. And as great a pitcher as he has been, he’s had a 200 strikeout season just once in career. His best days are behind him.
Recommendation: Respectfully trade him or keep him on your bench.

-Daniel Marino, head writer of supremesportsjustice.com

Respond to this post:

This feature is coming very soon

This feature is coming very soon