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2008 Fantasy Sleepers
By Jonathan C. Mitchell on March 16, 2008

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Every year we all try to nab sleepers during our draft. Truth be told, we all have our own personal sleepers and we refuse to listen to other people’s advise. So I devised a list of guys that you can nab either in the last two rounds of your draft or in waivers or free agents. Make sure you add these guys to your watch list.

C - J.R. Towles (HOU) - Towles has hit for average his entire pro career and he has developed 15+ homer power. He reminds me of what Russ Martin was at the beginning of last year. Towles could be a 15-15 guy at catcher with a good average. He is worth a roster spot.

1B - Conor Jackson (ARI) - Tony Clark is out of the picture now. First base is all Jackson’s. Jackson has the tools and is of the age now that he should post some really nice numbers in his ballpark. He is a legit candidate to go .300-25-100. He amde some great adjustments last season and ended with more walks than strikeouts (53/50) and his SLUG rose 26 points. After the All-Star break he hit 10 homers and had 15 doubles in 183 at-bats with a .308/.371/.555 stat line.

2B - Eugenio Velez (SF) - With Omar Vizquel possibly out for a while the Giants have a wide open spot at short. Velez is eligible at 2B and will gain SS eligability shortly after. He is much like Joey Gathright but at MIF. He could steal 50 bases easily if he gets 500 at-bats. Keep your eye on him and the Giants SS battle.

3B - Evan Longoria (TB) - Longoria may not start the season in the majors but he will be up very shortly afterwards. If there was a candidate to pull a “Ryan Braun” this season it would be Longoria. He has all the tools to do so. He is also a must in keeper leagues.

SS - Jeff Keppinger (CIN) - With Alex Gonzalez out to start the season Keppinger should get the nod at short. He also has 3B eligability in most leagues and could gain 2B and OF during the season. He can legitimately hit .300 and should be an easy pick-up off of waivers and free agency.

OF - Nate McLouth (PIT) - This is the man I have taken in all of leagues and I have gotten him on waivers, the last round of a draft, and for league minimum in an auction draft. With a full season, which looks like he will have, he should be no worse than a 15 homer 25 steal guy with the upside of 20-40. I am not joking about him. He should be owned in all leagues.

OF - Fred Lewis (SF) - Lewis reminds me of a young Randy Winn. He can hit for average with double digit pop in his bat and steal 20+ with ease. He could very easily top double digits in homers, doubles, triples, and steals if he wins an OF job and gets 450+ at-bats. Keep your eye on him.

OF - Joey Gathright (KC) - He may not be starting but if he does he could steal 40+ bases while hitting for a good average and possibly hit .300. He should be a wait-and-see candidate but I would put him in my watch list.

SP - Edison Volquez (CIN) - Volquez has always had great stuff but could never get command of it. This spring we have seen what he is capable of if he puts it all together: 19/3 K/BB ration in 13 innings. He should earn a spot in the Reds rotation and look for him to put up some decent numbers and be a waiver or free agent pick up in your league.

SP - Kevin Slowey (MIN) - If you want someone with the upside of James Shields but you don’t want to pay Shields money then this is your guy. Slowey punds the strike zone and has a good mixture of 4 pitches that are all league average or better. He should be in the Twins rotation for good and this could be the year he brings thos minor league stats to the big leagues.

RP - Troy Percival (TB) - After watching him hit 95 on the radar gun and seeing him sit at 91-94 I am sold on his comeback. I thought last year was kind of a fluke for him but his stuff is all there and he absolutely loves to play. He should be in line for a fine season and he should be available in the last 2-3 rounds of your draft.

RP - Matt Lindstrom (FLA) - Lindstrom brings the cheese in at triple digits and he had a fine rookie season last year. If Kevin Gregg falters then Lindstrom should be first in line to take the closer role. If not, he should provide double digit holds and upwards of 70+ strikeouts and a good ERA.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell

Posted in Fantasy |

  • John Cloutman Says:

    Great job!!!!! You couldn’t be more right about Towles. I am going to keep an eye on some these guys in my upcoming auction.

    Stephen Drew has to be considered as a sleeper at SS. He did not live up to expectations last year, but watch him take his game to the next level this season.

    Jayson Nix at 2B looks like a lock to win the job in Colorado. He has the potential to be a .290/15/80/80/20

  • Jonathan C. Mitchell Says:

    Thanks! I agree that Drew is a really good sleeper. No way he hits that badly ever again. Nix is a good option too but I’m not as optamistic. I think Rickie Weeks is a huge sleeper as well.

  • Erik Says:

    Wow… I am kind of in shock you think Towles is a sleeper considering most of the leagues I am in he’s like the 3rd catcher picked mind you they are all NL only leagues. Catcher is a rather weak position and you normally get a huge drop off from the Elite I guess Ben Molina would be top dog to the bottom of the Barrel NL starting catcher from a rotisserie standpoint in Jason Kendell. Towles should get good stats at Minute Maid and he does have some speed. The Cubs Geovany Soto is my personal sleeper at C or Jesus Flores in Washington should neither LoDuca or Estrada start the year.

    1b- Connor Jackson is a known commodity, the guy hits for a decent average but not a lot of pop. I like to think of him as a mark grace.

    2b- well now that brandon phillips is a known individual the sleeper for second base is Ronnie Belliard. I think he is still one of the most underrated secondbasemen in the league then again you get a huge drop off from Utley, phillips, kent, castillo, Jayson Nix is a good sleeper pick as well at second.

    3rd base- I think Kouzmanoff is primed for good second year. His stats after the allstar break are very good and he has been doing well of late.

    SS- Yunel Escobar is the sleeper because he is still basically an unknown… it will be his first year as Edgar Rentarias replacement. How will he fair being the everyday SS?

    OF-I think Geoff Jenkins is going to have a big year in Phillie. Look for a good year from him

    I would have to disagree about Mclouth… I think he will be the #4 or 5 outfielder for pittsburgh. And you can’t really call him a sleeper if the guy never plays.

    Volquez I’ve seen pitch he has decent stuff, but I doubt heavily he will make that much of an impact. The pitcher who has been intriguing to me is Miller from the FL Marlins. He’s got a good young arm if he ever gets that control thing down he could be a #2 starter.

    Lindstrom will be the closer of the Marlins by May 31. But the guy I think is Marmol. Marmol will be the Cubs closer by the end of April. Another closer to watch out for is Turnbow look for him to take over from Gagne.

  • Jonathan C. Mitchell Says:

    Towles hasn’t gone in any draft I’ve been in that is mixed other than auction drafts or by me in the last round. I named the guys I did because they aren’t getting drated and/or are owned in under 50% of leagues. Escobar, Kouzmanoff, Miller, Soto, are all getting drafted. They are all very good, and I mean very good later round seepers but my list was based on guys who go in the last two rounds and who don’t get drafted at all. The guys I will totally disagree with are Belliard and of course McLouth. He offers nothing in my opinion. He’s average at best and should be a backup in the big leagues. McLouth has also done everything he can to win the CF job in Pittsburgh and management has loved his play. I do like Jenkins too, as long as you only play him against righties.

  • John Cloutman Says:

    First of all, McLouth is listed as the starter on all of the major sports site(CBS Sportsline, ESPN, The Sporting News).

    Second, Towles went in the 13th round in one of my NL-only leagues, and undrafted in one of mixed leagues.

    Third, Belliard has seen his numbers fall since his career year in 2005. Belliard should be considered as a reserve second basemen at best, and should be ignored on draft day. Felipe Lopez will be the starting 2B.

  • Erik Says:

    Point of a sleeper is that you don’t expect things from him and then he turns around and has a great year. mclouth has had a history of starting out strong against spring training and April pitching. He then falters and usually the Pirates end up with Chris Duffy in CF as their starter cause he either doesn’t hustle or what have you. Mclouth has a bad rap in Pittsburgh. You can expect Nyjer Morgan to take over by May.

    John I don’t know where you get your information on Belliard but I guess I should supply you with this information http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/belliro01.shtml
    Belliard has been a consistant .280-.290 hitter 12 hrs 50+ rbi guy since 2005. and I see Felipe Lopez being traded.

  • Charlie Nehl Says:

    I’m really high on Matt Lindstrom. I don’t think that he’ll be the closer this season, unless Gregg gets hurt. I think Gregg is a highly underrated closer and competitior. He’s got pretty good stuff. And I’m fan of the glasses. =)

    I’m avoiding Edison Volquez purely because of the Dusty Baker factor. Actually, you can have him this season, and then he’ll be trash ala Prior.

    Is Percival closing for the Rays this season, or is Al Reyes going to do it with his high ERA? I don’t know I haven’t checked it out.

    I like Fred Lewis alot too. He should be able to get much more playing time this season, if not starting outright with the departure of Barry.

    I’m not completely sold on McLouth, yet. I personally see him a solid 4th OF.

    My personal sleepers:

    Angel Pagan - OF - Mets
    He’s a 5 tool player, but like Beltran or Hamilton 4/5 tool. He’s above average everywhere, but not superstar like above average. With all the hurt dudes in the Mets system, he could find more playing time. There’s also rumors floating around that he’ll be traded.

    John Patterson - SP - Nationals
    As by our slight bidding war on this guy, I think you agree that he’ll bounce back big time this season. He had a really good 2005 season posting a 3.13 ERA, but then ran into injuries in 06 and 07.

    In regards to Ronnie Belliard. He’s an above average player, he just won’t put up huge fantasy stats. I picked him on my team purely for a high average (assuming Guzman gets the nod at SS and Lopez at second). I think Lopez will be playing SS and Belliard 2nd. Guzman has run his career into a backup role.

    I think it really depends on the league for guys like Towles, Marmol, Escobar, Kouzmanoff, and Jackson to be considered sleepers. In more competitive leagues where guys know more outside their favorite team, know about how this guys are doing. In the leagues I’m in all of those guys are getting drafted decently high, but not overly high, unless there’s a fan boi really needing a player.

  • Jonathan C. Mitchell Says:

    Erik - Again, Belliard’s stats do nothing for me. I would rather have a 2B that can steal some bases and score and knockin some more runs. He’s only hit higher than .284 twice in his career and once was last year at .290 and the other his first full season in the bigs in 1999. He’s good for doubles in a doubles league but that’s about it. His career OPS+ is 95, aka — below average. Give me Mark Ellis or even Felipe Lopez. You make it sound like McLouth is a veteran. He is 26 and has 708 career at-bats. He did exceptionally well last season and Chris Duffy is the one you are probably thinking of that has missed every opportunity to start and is a bit of a problem guy. They are easily confused by people. Love the banter Erik! I know you’re always good for it! Haha!

  • Jonathan C. Mitchell Says:

    Charlie- I too like Patterson as long as he is healthy. He has always been a good pitcher when healthy. Pagan though… He’s a 4/5 outfielder to me at most. He has some speed but not enough pop.

  • Erik Says:

    I was just trying to illustrate that there is a huge drop off from the second base elite especially in the NL. And that Belliard is considered a sleeper for the position. Felipe Lopez will be the SS and Guzman will be the expensive backup. Guzman doesn’t steal anymore has no pop… therefore Belliard will be the starter. As far as stolen base threats the list is relatively low. Phillips, Matsui, Roberts, Cano, Castillo, Kinsler, come to mind… You’ll pay top $ for those players… Nix would be a top pick because of his rookie status would be a sleeper. He’s a very good one though.

    My strategy is balance. My keeper list consists of:
    Carlos Ruiz
    Prince Fielder
    Ronnie Belliard
    Yunel Escobar
    Ryan Braun
    Jeff Francoeur
    Hunter Pence
    Felix Pie
    Tim Lincecum
    Jason Isringhausen
    Micah Owings… Which gives me over 160/12 players… targeting pitching… Mainly Peavy, Oswalt and Lowe…

  • Charlie Nehl Says:

    I’d like Owings, if I could also get his hittings stats on my team too =) I heard a musings this offseason that the DBacks were toss around the idea of a spot start for Ownings at 1st Base to get some more at-bats. Owings is an athlete!

  • Jonathan C. Mitchell Says:

    Pirates CF job status:

    McLouth played left field and went 1-for-4. Morgan played center and 0-for-3 with two walks.

    McLouth is hitting .333 (12-for-36) with five doubles, one triple, one home run and three stolen bases. Morgan is batting .233 (10-for-42) with one double and two steals.

  • Erik Says:

    Ever hear the expression April Sept hitter?

  • Jaanus147 Says:

    Huh… Slightly addled, but on the whole I like this post. You’ve got some fresh ideas. But please, write more lucid.

  • Jonathan C. Mitchell Says:

    Thanks Jaanus! Sorry if some of it was hard to understand but you seem to be pretty good with words using the likes of “addled” and “lucid”. Seriously though, thanks for the feedback, we appreciate it!

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